Back in 2018, it took just eight words to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position & Closed Issues
Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on the EU
However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.
And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas
Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.
David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.
An Alarming Document & Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.
However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past
This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of remain in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of senior ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Danger and A Wise Reminder
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.
It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
